Recession?

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icfrugal1
Posts: 2322
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 12:54 am

Re: Recession?

Post by icfrugal1 » Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:34 pm

sadly, I think so :(

Not just on a personal level because I'm spending money like water :roll: :roll:

Ally 12 month CD's are 2.5%, but my IRA money can only get 1.8% :( I was getting 2%

and of course prices are going up and I don't think that we have seen the worse of it yet.

PS I love how informed all of you are.

IC

Dgflorida
Posts: 3305
Joined: Wed Oct 07, 2015 8:10 pm

Re: Recession?

Post by Dgflorida » Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:27 pm

Interesting responses. I went to a frugal FB group I belong to and it seemed that the not all buy into the possibility of recession. It seems that it has been predicted since early 2017 by a couple of so called experts and a one person provided articles that showed it. The articles did not provide an economic basis for their opinion. And several other people provided supposed scholarly articles that were in conflict with each other concerning the importance and accuracy of the inverted interest rate indicator. One person pointed out that the DOW lost 800 points in one day. But another pointed out that it recovered within about 24 hours. Interestingly, no one responding considered the tariffs to be significant. The world economy is definitely in trouble. Germany, frequently considered the backbone of the EU economy is experiencing a substantial slowdown. Britain has Brexit jitters. China is also experiencing a slowdown although this may be for show. I am reading conflicting reports from there. The US economy is currently red hot. Consumer confidence is near an 18 year high according to Marketwatch. Unemployment is at something like a 50 year low. Wages are creeping up. Other economic indicator are favorable as well. And the US does not meet the indicators for a late business cycle which is the phase just before a recession. A house remodeling contractor says that homes are overpriced and a recession would slow that market considerably. But he did say with low interest rates, it was a great time to refinance a home loan. Most felt that they could not really change their lifestyle much.

colonialgirl
Posts: 1488
Joined: Sat Aug 29, 2015 2:01 am
Location: Central Illinois

Re: Recession?

Post by colonialgirl » Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:00 am

I will be happy with a recession because I fear a depression.

Unlike DG's facebook friends, the tariffs are very much an issue here in Illinois. Every night's news features farmers screaming like banshees that they have lost 40-100% of their markets due to the tariffs and this is on top of a spring so wet, it prevented planting of many crops.

Illinois is one of the nations top producers of soybeans, corn and swine - which is going to have an effect on every part of the grocery store stock. If people can't afford to buy meat because of the prices, they will eat more veggies and fruits - more demand = higher prices.

I feel for the farmers, because they are getting hit on all sides. I feel for all of us, because the shakiness of the worlds markets and lack of experience and ability in this administration, leaves all of us in I believe great danger. I saw an interesting stat yesterday, so I looked it up to share. "CEO compensation rose 940% from 1978 to 2018, compared with a 12% rise in pay for the average American worker during the same period, according to the Economic Policy Institute" DG, your assessment that wages are creeping up sounds right - creeping being the operative word.

Trickle down economics doesn't work - period. It has been proven over and over. Now the bill is coming due for the suppression of working people. I think it is going to be a bumpy, bumpy ride.

Quilter51
Posts: 486
Joined: Sat Aug 29, 2015 6:04 pm

Re: Recession?

Post by Quilter51 » Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:26 am

Yep. The president just agreed to hold off on new tarrifs against China until December so that the economy doesnt turn around during the Xmas rush. The recession is coming. His advisors are just trying to delay it till the election.

Dgflorida
Posts: 3305
Joined: Wed Oct 07, 2015 8:10 pm

Re: Recession?

Post by Dgflorida » Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:01 am

Fortunately, late Friday, the inverted interest rate curve corrected itself. According to my actual financial resources(not media), there are no economic indicators for a recession at this time. It is interesting that I haven't heard anything about the tariffs from 80k members of the agricultural groups I follow. I will have to ask. I did read an article about one rice grower in California who has secured a permit from China to sell them rice and was due to ship them some within the week. I idea of selling rice to China was a chuckle. Still I thought there was some kind of anti American agriculture ban. Have to study up on that. Thanks Colonialgirl. But the 39k members of the frugal group may not know anything about the tariffs. The agricultural people should give me an earful.

Dgflorida
Posts: 3305
Joined: Wed Oct 07, 2015 8:10 pm

Re: Recession?

Post by Dgflorida » Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:03 am

Thanks for thinking it is my assessment, colonial girl. But smarter people than me have said that. This last assessment was from Fidelity.com and I think it can be googled.

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