Recession?

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icfrugal1
Posts: 2315
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 12:54 am

Re: Recession?

Post by icfrugal1 » Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:16 pm

speaking of CD rates, I received notice that one of DH's CD's is being called, it was paying 3.00% until 2027 LOL :roll: Luckily it is just a $1,000 one, but the same bank has one of them for $12,000 again paying 3.00% I won't be surprised if that one is also called :(

IC

Quilter51
Posts: 486
Joined: Sat Aug 29, 2015 6:04 pm

Re: Recession?

Post by Quilter51 » Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:11 pm

And tho think there was a time when we had double digit CD rates all the time, lol

icfrugal1
Posts: 2315
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 12:54 am

Re: Recession?

Post by icfrugal1 » Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:46 am

in 1982 (or so) DH had a CD paying 16.% WOW.

Sadly his mother heard about it and long story short, she needed the $2.000 so DH co-singed for a loan for her using the CD as security for the loan.

So she did pay interest on the loan for awhile, then of course :evil: :evil: defaulted on the loan, DH lost the money :evil:

She said later that if DH had just given her the money then she would not have been out of the money !!!! AUUUUUUUUUUGGGGGGGGGG

When she sold her house a few years later there was no talk of paying DH back :evil: :|

IC

Dgflorida
Posts: 3290
Joined: Wed Oct 07, 2015 8:10 pm

Re: Recession?

Post by Dgflorida » Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:17 pm

I agree with you IC. The very low interest rates are not a friend of mine. I have been trying to follow up on the impact of tariffs with real ag. people, not those cherry picked for local news. The impact seems very uneven. Some feel they are needed. Some not. Mostly they are concerned about the wild weather and love less regulations and less paperwork. The tariff subject came up on the Nightly business report a couple of nights ago, so it has the attention of the business world apparently. The analyst that they interviewed from an investment fund associated with retail market said that most of the big stores have integrated the tariff costs into their products already, so he didn't see an impact on consumers. This mirrors comments I have heard from other professionals in the business community. In general, they all feel that we are in the late-middle of the business cycle and should invest accordingly. Of course, my concern is that the global economy doesn't look healthy and could cause a pull down of the US economy. Pulling away from the EU seems like a smart thing at this point. I believe it was Europe that pulled us into the Depression in the 1920's although the easy US credit market contributed to the situation. Europe, 1920's, never recovered well from WW1.I am not in favor of an additional tax cut and was glad to see it off the table, at least for now. Lending markets are still pretty tight (I think overly tight) and the Federal reserve decisions don't make much sense to me. It looks like they are working off of old economic theories which I don't think apply well to our dynamic 24/7 world economy. I am surprised that the brick and mortar market is doing as well as it is. Earning week reports were very good. At this moment, there are no indications of a recession. The interest yield spread is very good. The AI programs that run Wall Street are upbeat. Interesting discussion.

Dgflorida
Posts: 3290
Joined: Wed Oct 07, 2015 8:10 pm

Re: Recession?

Post by Dgflorida » Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:01 pm

Floridacat brought up an interesting point about the interest rates. I can't see any good reason for them to be so low. I don't consider the Federal Reserve to be a friend of the little guy. Low interest rates tend to force people into the stock market which is not always a good place to be. The brokerage representatives will tell these gentle people that they are losing money just sitting on it and in "conservative" investments it could help their retirement nest egg. Preying on the fears of less financially educated people just makes my blood boil.

The 97% of ecomonists believe recession is coming is an interesting statement. My reading of business news sources say only 1/3 believe that. Federal Reserve Bank of New York being at a 30% chance. Of course, I also see certain media reporting as high as 70% are predicting. But they seem to prefer alarmist reporting, so no surprise there. But there is a real problem that is being largely overlooked. Increasing local and state taxes. It is eating the farmers and ranchers up. They are telling people not to move to either California or Illinois as a result. It is also becoming a problem for the elderly and those on fixed incomes. It generally results in reduced spending for goods which then translates into reduced hiring. That is a trend that I do think may play out over the next 12-24 months. This is what business usually means by a late business cycle. Here, local government is tacking fees to the local property tax and also added tax to car gas. I expect that to spread to utilities within the next 12 months. Tough times ahead.

BevMoore
Posts: 678
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:04 pm

Re: Recession?

Post by BevMoore » Thu Aug 22, 2019 3:23 pm

The housing crisis is the number 1 reason not to move here to CA. The prices and rents are beyond ridiculous now. Even the former affordable central valley and inland areas are feeling the impact of the Bay Area And LA floods of people so prices have gotten high in those areas as a result. Add to that the horrible 2 hour commutes each way if you live in the valley but work in the Bay Area. And the traffic patterns indicate there is more and more of that happening. California is not sustainable.

Bev

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